2010: a glimpse ahead (part 2)

The Netbook Reinvention

To an extent, users have rumbled netbooks now. That’s not to say they’re not satisfied with them, just that people know what they’re going to get. Manufacturers, however, are keen to exploit what’s been a massive growth segment of the market in the last year or two, and we’ll continue to see diversification and investment in the specifications of netbook machines. Windows 7 might help there, not least with Microsoft’s marketing muscle at hand, and Google too is working closely with netbook manufacturers to ensure that it too gains a slice of this booming part of the market. To keep some degree of margin in the sector, it’s going to need help from all quarters, and don’t be surprised to see more ‘premium’ netbooks throughout 2010.

NVidia At A Crossroads

NVidia has been a revolutionary force in PC graphics over the past decade, but it stands at a pivotal moment in its future. Its discrete graphics card business is currently under immense pressure from a resurgent AMD/ATI, with it struggling to match up in the performance stakes, and falling a long way behind in terms of value for money too. Plus its chipset business isn’t what it was either, caught up in legal wranglings at a time when the firm needs the most freedom it can give itself.

Is NVidia under threat? Not as a business, no. But it’s certainly in real danger of becoming a lot less important than it once was, and while it continues to develop fresh products, its place at the cutting edge of PC graphics technology is no longer assured.

Takeovers?

Inevitably, some businesses are surviving the credit crunch in better shape than others, but it’s certainly leaving many who haven’t fared quite so well vulnerable to takeovers. We’ve already seen, for instance, AOL shedding a third of its global workforce this year, and that’s just in one sector of the market. We can expect 2010 to bring similar stories, sadly, and we fully expect that those who do have some cash in their pockets – and we inevitably end up looking at the likes of Google and Microsoft again – to take advantage of what is right now a buyers’ market.

Service Matters

Nothing radical here. As the value of reselling products has steadily fallen over the past decade, it’s the surrounding services that have come into their own. It’s no coincidence that the companies who are finding themselves in better shape right now generally have some form of paid-for service element to them, be they rounded VARs, or exclusively service-centric. Google, interestingly, a firm that’s never sold a physical product in its life, is countering the trend with its aforementioned Nexus One – a real life product to be sold in stores. There will, of course, be exceptions to every rule.

Office 2010/Windows 7

Microsoft made radical changes to its Office product with Office 2007, introducing the still-talked-about ribbon interface in a bid to solidify and freshen up one of its most lucrative product lines. It enjoyed some success too, and it’s going to fight hard again to sell the market a premium office suite when it releases Office 2010 in a few months’ time. It’s embracing cloud computing as well as providing a comprehensive suite of installable applications, and Microsoft will be looking to build on what proved to be a successful launch for Windows 7.

Talking of which, the firm will be looking to take advantage of the momentum that it’s built up, with the release of Service Pack 1 for Windows 7. Now that the price promotions that it wrapped Windows 7 up in for the first three months are mostly at an end, it’s arguable that the real work begins, as the firm attempts to wean the majority of users away from Windows XP. Vista, inevitably, isn’t being talked about much…

Part one