2010: a glimpse ahead

Dependant on which financial genius you believe, 2010 is either going to be a year of continued consolidation and survival, or the time when those ‘green shoots of recovery’ are finally visible. What does seem clear is that money is still likely to be tight, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some interesting developments for us to look ahead to over the coming year. Here are some you might want to keep your eye on…


Google Chrome OS/Cloud Computing
Never mind the fact that it’s got the Google name in it – Chrome OS is arguably the release with the biggest job on its hands this year. It sees the firm – known primarily of course for its search engine – attacking the very core of Microsoft, by offering a big brand PC-based alternative for Windows.

That said, Chrome OS isn’t directly targeting Windows, instead choosing to go off in a lateral direction. It’s looking to migrate more users towards a cloud computing way of working, that would see them loading up an ultra-fast operating system on a PC with very little actually installed on it. Then, as and when things are needed, Chrome OS would pull them in from the internet.

While there’s clearly some interest in seeing if Microsoft’s Windows monopoly is vulnerable though, there’s inevitably some worry for the channel. Whatever brickbats are hurled at Microsoft, the Windows ecosystem has sat at the heart of the IT trade for the best part of two decades, and any migration towards a much lower cost (Google may still charge for its OS) will evidently have knock-on effects. All should start to become clear by the end of the year.

The Piracy Clampdown
Software sales have decimated across some sections of the channel roughly in tandem with the increase in broadband connections. Selling boxed software – from games through to applications – has lost most of its allure as rampant piracy makes it difficult for many to justify. Granted, the big companies and security specialists are exploiting niches and areas where users simply have to pay for their software, but the shelves of most software emporiums – if they even exist any more – are far less varied and interesting.

The Government is planning to act on this, at least if it remains in power come the General Election. White box ISPs are likely to be affected here too, as the Government is pursuing the same kind of three-strikes policy that the French have just put on their statute books. Peter Mandelson is the driving force behind the move in the UK, but you can’t help thinking that if he’s going to do it, he’d better get a crack on.

Broadband
The Digital Britain report is throwing up many opportunities for the channel, with the Government’s aim of getting every user in the UK access to 2Mbps broadband within the next three years. That’s a lot of households that currently don’t have fast internet access set to get wired up, and they’re all going to need ISPs and associated services.

Furthermore, there’s continued growth at the premium end of the market. It’s expected that 100Mbps home services will be up and running before the year is out, most likely being rolled out by Virgin Media, but BT should be speeding up its own lines too, and again, for white box ISPs, that opens up significant opportunities.

4G
We’ll be touching on Apple shortly with its rumoured iPhone 4G. However, the 4G element is likely to see a continued fuelling of the communications market, which, of course, the channel is well positioned to take advantage of. That said, there are still problems that the standard itself faces as some components need formal rubber stamping. Yet if the story of 802.11n is anything to go by, manufacturers will be happy enough jumping in whether there’s been formal approval or not, which will lead to the unveiling of 4G services that don’t match the potential that 4G has to offer. Consumers, none the wiser on the whole, will nonetheless likely to be keen to take advantage of the evolving technology.


The Brand Matters
More than ever, branding is pivotal to success in technology. Granted, there’s still room for value selling, and always will be. Yet the closing of the price differences between big brands and the box-shifters has been notable. It’s still there, but more and more products have become commodities. Even HDTVs are falling regularly below the £500 mark, eating away at what was a solid margin maker.

Then there’s Apple, for example. It’ll likely launch its iPhone 4G, and pitch it head to head with the Google Nexus One. There’s no question which will win the fight, given how comprehensively Apple owns that segment of the market. In fact, there are some firms who it’s increasingly folly to fight unless you’ve lots of money in the bank – even Microsoft is being advised to abandon the Smartphone sector now, for instance. On the upside, where there’s a big technology success, there does tend to be a small cottage industry surrounding it for accessories and such like, and these continue to be impressive margin makers.

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